Rob recently provided some thoughts on the Russian economy and the global economy.
I'm not sure I have much to add. If there is anything I've learned while following the events of the past two years it's how little I actually know. I think Nouriel Roubini (Dr. Doom!) does a good job summarizing where we are now [on a global scale] and where we may be headed.
Here are two very general questions that I think will play an enormous role in determining the future global economy:
1. What will the proper role of the Fed and central banks be?
2. What does the future hold for modern finance? More to the point, how is finance going to be regulated? How will private firms and eventually the entire private market react to such regulation?
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Great link to FT, Will. Really enjoyed that. Insightful and grim. I question Roubini's assertion about crowding out, althought I could see his logic if he's talking about future spending by the private sector being undercut by low rates now.
ReplyDeleteQuestion Rob. First off, communication via writing can unfortunately carry a tone that is not implied by the writer but is for whatever reason infered by the reader. So please note that this question is purely inquisitive in nature and not aggressive at all.
ReplyDeleteMy impression from your writings on this matter is that you seem to doubt the validity of government crowding out effects on the private sector. If I'm correct (and of course I may not be), what is your reasoning? I'm more interested in your logic than reference to any particular set of data.